Holiday 2025 CPG Retail Trends

Q4 is quickly approaching, with promotional plans and competitive advantages already solidified by each Retailer. What do we expect to see this holiday season?

1. Early Shopping and Calendar Shifts

• Two-thirds of consumers plan to start holiday shopping before Black Friday. We expect that October is still the kickoff month, with brands launching promotions and gift guides well before Cyber Week. An increasing trend of deep value offers will be available as Retailers compete online for BOPIS (Buy Online, Pick Up In Store) sales.

2. Value-Driven Spending Amid Inflation

• Consumers are spending cautiously, focusing on essential goods like groceries and gift cards over discretionary items. Retailers are well aware and are already prepared to offer irresistible value. Promotions and discounts of 25–40% are expected to drive conversion! Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) continues to grow, helping consumers stretch budgets across multiple holidays, another tactic aimed to encourage spending this holiday.

3. E-Commerce and Mobile Dominate

• Deloitte forecasts 7–9% growth in e-commerce, with a potential for holiday sales to reach upwards of +$1.6 trillion. It is unmistakably clear that mobile commerce is leading the charge, especially during Black Friday and Cyber Monday. We know that 75% of sales begin online right now, and the Q4 shopping trends will continue to see this metric increase as consumers shop for the best value.

4. AI and Personalization

• 52% of shoppers plan to use AI tools for holiday planning, including chatbots and personalized gift guides. Because of this, we are seeing Retailers integrating AI into their reach tactics, enhancing the discovery experience and securing conversion.