Retailers Gear Up for Black Friday 2025: What’s the Playbook?

The CPG by MPG
Nov 24
3 min read

As Black Friday approaches, retailers are pulling out all the stops, but this year’s playbook looks even more complex. Between early online deals, in-store door busters, and tech-powered personalization, 2025 is shaping up to be another hybrid-heavy holiday season. Here is how retailers are preparing for the largest shopping holiday of the year.

The Big Question: More Online or In-Person?

Online is still king, but in-store shopping is far from dead.

According to recent survey data, 71% of shoppers plan to do their Black Friday shopping online, while only 29% expect to shop in person.
Retailers are leaning into that: Experian reports that mobile shopping remains a major driver, and brands are using AI-powered tools (like chatbots and recommendation engines) to boost conversions.
At the same time, retailers aren’t abandoning the physical store. Forbes notes that many are using AI + data insights to align inventory, personalize offers, and drive in-store traffic in smarter ways.

In short: the biggest bets are on integrated strategies using digital channels to drive in-store sales, and vice versa.

Timing It Right: When Are Stores Opening?

Retailers are sticking with relatively traditional store hours for Black Friday 2025 but with a few twists:

Most big-box retailers (like Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Best Buy) are planning to open around 6:00 AM on Black Friday.
Stores that historically open really early like Kohl’s and JCPenney are expected to open at 5:00 AM.
Warehouse clubs are a bit later: for instance, Costco is expected to open around 9:00 AM.
Unlike some past years, many major retailers are not opening on Thanksgiving Day, opting instead to start big pushes with online deals.

Strategic Trends: What Retailers Are Doing Differently This Year

Early-Access & Extended Sales Windows
- Some retailers are launching “doorbuster-style” deals well before Black Friday. For example, Best Buy’s first 2025 “DoorBOOsters” went live on October 31.
- These early deals often run both online and in-store, giving retailers more time to drive traffic and manage inventory.
AI + Personalization
- Retailers are leaning into Gen AI tools to help consumers choose products, plan purchases, and discover deals.
- They’re also using data to target customers with very specific offers: buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) options, curated bundles, and personalized pricing. Experian says BNPL contributed significantly to online sales growth.
Omnichannel Logistics
- With high online demand, physical stores are serving as fulfillment hubs (curbside pickup, BOPIS, etc.) in many markets.
- Retailers are also more carefully balancing inventory between online and store shelves, thanks to data-driven forecasting.
Customer Experience as a Differentiator
- It’s not just about price, experiences matter. Retailers are continuing to build in festive or loyalty-member experiences to lure shoppers into stores.
- On the other hand, seamless online checkout, fast delivery, and generous return policies remain key for converting digital shoppers.

What This Means for Shoppers

Plan early: With deals rolling out before Thanksgiving, it’s smart to keep an eye on retailer emails and apps.
Use omnichannel options: If there’s a deal you like online, check if your local store has stock for pickup that may be faster and safer than waiting.
Leverage loyalty or payment tools: BNPL, store credit cards, and loyalty programs could unlock better deals or early access.
Be strategic about in-store visits: If you’re going in person, target the early morning hours.(5–7 AM)

Our Key Takeaways:

Retailers heading into Black Friday 2025 are playing a dual game: dominate online, but keep stores relevant. They’re using early promotions, AI, and deep data to meet shoppers wherever they are whether that’s on a phone, laptop, or standing in front of a shelf at 6 AM. For consumers, this means more opportunity than ever to catch a deal but also a need to stay ready, stay informed, and shop smart.